US 1990 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)
This is the last US Intelligence Estimate on Yugoslavia in 1990, before all hell broke loose. It is actually very accurate with the following caveat. You will notice that they refer to "claimed fellow-nationals in Greece and Bulgaria". This qualification is, I suppose in response to the pressure by Greek lobby and their supporters in the US Congress. Macedonians don't just claim that Macedonian minorities exist in Greece and Bulgaria. They do exist and can be seen "darting around with cunning and vigor!" This little example shows how the intelligence gathering process is subverted by political pressure to give an inaccurate picture of the truth. (A preview small preview of the Iraq intelligence fiasco.). I believe that, at the time, the US ambassador was meeting with representatives of ethnic Macedonians in Greece. Now, if we could just get the US State Department to release the report of the US Ambassador on his meeting with the "claimed" Macedonians in Greece, that would be just great.
US 1990 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)
Nationalist conflict in Yugoslavia is exacerbated by the recent spectacular growth of Macedonian nationalism. This has been in response to the disintegration of the federation, but more specifically to perceived Serbian threats to Macedonia's own integrity. Macedonian nationalism has now assumed a transnational dimension in attempting to appeal to claimed fellow-nationals in Greece and Bulgaria. Since Serbs, Greeks and Bulgarians reject the notion of a separate Macedonian nationhood, the potential for an international crisis is manifest.
